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Covid of the Past: Smallpox in Yugoslavia, 1972

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The article re-examines the 1972 smallpox outbreak in Yugoslavia, challenging the conventional narrative that public health interventions, particularly mass vaccination, were solely responsible for its control. The author argues that the epidemic was a self-limited wave, peaking and declining *before* the implementation of martial law, quarantines, lockdowns, and widespread vaccination campaigns. Key factors in the epidemic's natural end are attributed to a 'broader herd immunity' stemming from improved living conditions, sanitation, hygiene, and nutrition, rather than solely prior infection or vaccination. The outbreak was concentrated in Kosovo, a socio-economically disadvantaged region with lower general immunity and documented vaccine hesitancy, yet still followed a rapid, self-limiting course. The article critiques the lack of control data to properly assess vaccine effectiveness during the outbreak and highlights adverse effects, such as abortions in vaccinated pregnant women, and hospitals as significant sites of infection. It draws parallels to the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting a tendency to overstate the impact of interventions while underestimating natural epidemic dynamics.

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